Yesterday, Capital Bikeshare (CaBi) released the results of their 2011 Member Survey, and the data gathered shows that Capital Bikeshare was helping users expand their transportation options and save time and money while meeting regional goals of reduced congestion and mode-shifting towards a healthier and cleaner mode.
Though no question about overall satisfaction with Capital Bikeshare was asked, a majority of users rated CaBi features highly (4 or 5 on a 5-point scale) in every category and in some cases as many as 75% of users did; and there are some obvious reasons to be satisfied. Users reported that since joining CaBi they have saved an average of $819 a year, which is quite a bargain for a $75 annual fee, assuming that CaBi is one of the main drivers for that savings (total cost per year is likely higher due to overage fees, but certainly not as high as $819). In addition, CaBi gave them greater mobility, with nearly half of all respondents reporting that with CaBi they made a trip that they otherwise would not have. We already knew that users are saving time over transit trips, but since many users are shifting from walking, it's pretty safe to assume they're saving time too.
But users aren't the only winners. DC and Arlington is achieving some of it's goals too, including congestion reduction, and greater use of cleaner, healthier modes.
Driving is a major source of pollution and congestion, and CaBi helped to shift drivers from cars to cleaner modes. 40% of CaBi users reported using a car less often since the program started and 94% of them said that CaBi played some part in that. As a result the estimated drop in total VMT is about 5 million miles per year. In addition more than 50% of respondents reported using taxis less often and 14% reported using car sharing less often.
As for congestion, 60% of all CaBi users reported using the bikes for commute trips when congestion is at its worst. And in contrast to driving, where almost no one reported driving more since getting CaBi, some of the reduction in transit use and walking was offset by people who used transit or walking more. So while 41% of respondents said they drove less, and none said more, only 31% of people reported walking less while 15% reported walking more. For Metrorail it was 47% less and 6% more and metro bus was 39% less and 5% more, all of which indicates a larger overall shift from driving than from other modes. Specifically during the commute, 57% of people reported changing their commute, with 44% reporting biking to work more, 10% reported riding transit more and 10% walking more.
Even shifting from transit to biking is still a win. That represents an increase in public health, faster loading and unloading, less crowding and less fuel use. In addition, 80% of respondents reported biking more and most of them reported that CaBi played an important role in that.
Another benefit was that CaBi's induced trips all occurred within the District or Arlington. Those trips were for social/entertainment, restaurants, errands and shopping. Which means that CaBi likely helped local businesses to capture more business from members.
And perhaps most interestingly, CaBi has been making money lately. Fot the last month on record, CaBi made $400,000 in revenue of which $120,000 is above operating costs.
But there is still room for growth. Based on concerns about dockblocking they believe it's clear that there is more of a market for CaBi commuting than can currently be supported.
And there are demographic shifts that are occurring that should grow usership. Women haven't joined the program as much as men have (only 45% of members are female), but since April 2011, the membership has shifted to a nearly equal split of 51% men and 49% women, suggesting either that women are now more aware of the program or that the program is more attractive to women now that it was at the start. The program is also overwhelmingly white (81% vs 53% for regional employees) but again it's shifting as non-whites have comprised 23% of recent members. And while nearly a third of original members owned a bicycle when they joined, only 22% of the most recent members owned a bike, indicating that the program is attracting more members who were not regular bike users.
Other information to come out of the survey includes
- Not only do users say that CaBi makes a business more appealing but the people say that most often are the same people who are most likely to say that CaBi induced them to take new trips
- CaBi saved all users a total of $15,000,000 a year.
- The survey was not totally random and they acknowledge that the average respondent does not match the average member. Part of that may be because the survey was online only.
- They're planning a second survey, and might ask about car ownership - and whether CaBi helped them to sell a car, crashes and ownership.
- 10% of members don't wear helmets because they don't need to. But others don't because they don't have a helmet with them or that carrying a helmet is not convenient.
- The 5 million miles of reduced driving is probably under-reported because they didn't ask about family members or people who got rid of/didn't buy a cars in part due to CaBi.
- There is no talk of raising prices, despite the large value of the program to users.
- Most respondents were from DC (about 4000 vs. 300 from Arlington).
- CaBi has sold about 300 helmets so far. Before selling them, they did talk to one store owner - who expressed no concerns. No other store owners have contacted them either.
- There is quite a bit of churn in membership. This is largely believed to be a function of the high student membership (10%) and the transient nature of DC.
"Even shifting from transit to biking is still a win" - esp if it's peak period replacement, the most expensive transit trip for WMATA to provide
5M miles avoided also doesn't include any foregone taxi mileage
not taking the helmet bait
Posted by: darren | June 19, 2012 at 04:33 PM
There is a lot to digest here.
As I said on GGW, the driving numbers are way overstated. If you want congestion and/or air quality benefits I'd like to see metrics that are directly tied into congestion and/or air quality.
You've got to get more granular on the transit shift (buses or rail). But I understand the data is going to help there.
81% white? And for a heavilty DC centric suvey? And what is recent members (april?)
I do think the survey is a good data point to raise membership prices.
Posted by: charlie | June 19, 2012 at 06:45 PM
Observers should note that this is just a survey of registered members, not daily users. Since daily and 3-day (and the former 5-day) users make up the majority of riders on a daily basis, the survey only shows a small slice of the CaBi-riding populace.
However, it does help to show what local CaBi riders are like.
There actually was a slight price increase for annual members, but in the form of a pay-monthly deal. I think that's a good idea even if the loss of interest on prepaid plans offsets the higher year-end revenue from annual members.
The price increase for daily and 3-day members helps the system's finances. That group doesn't seem to be motivated by pricing in their use of CaBi (within reason). Many people want to enjoy their trips to D.C. so they don't mind paying a couple extra dollars for a daily membership.
I don't think there's a need for a large increase for annual membership fees. But a small increase every other year or so would be reasonable.
Posted by: Michael H. | June 19, 2012 at 08:22 PM
charlie, why are the driving numbers way overstated?
What metrics related to congestion and air quality would you look for? You'd have to compare the actual values to the expected values, which would probably show nothing (CaBi is still very small) and would be only based on an estimate.
recent members are those who joined between between July and November 2011.
They are not going to raise membership prices. Not any time soon at least. Not while they're turning a profit.
Posted by: washcycle | June 19, 2012 at 11:07 PM
Yep, Michael H is right, the monthly payment deal is a price increase and is handled the right way.
Look, more fees = more more for expansion.
@Wash; I don't trust the driving numbers because it all based on estimates and induced demand.
Lets look at their estimate : 5 million VMT. Total DC VMT is in the 4 billion range. So to see a 1 or 2% reduction in VMT we'd have to expand the system by 10x or 20x
And remember, we are paying from CMAQ money to replace driving for .01% of road use?
Posted by: charlie | June 20, 2012 at 08:32 AM
@Michael H
Since daily and 3-day (and the former 5-day) users make up the majority of riders on a daily basis,
Can you cite this? It has been a while since I looked at the numbers (before the mall stations opened), but this doesn't sound right. Revenue, yes, but not riders.
Posted by: guest | June 20, 2012 at 11:30 AM
Best argument for bikeshare -- it will pay fo your booze!
http://www.cdc.gov/VitalSigns/pdf/2012-01-vitalsigns.pdf
I see the ads now -- ride bikeshare, drink for free!
Posted by: charlie | June 20, 2012 at 12:18 PM
charlie, more fees only = more expansion if you think that money will be dedicated to expansion. But if you look at Mayor Gray's budget that isn't what happens. He doesn't dedicate Bikeshare ad revenue to expansion. Nor does anyone really think that any net money will go to expansion.
Plus, higher fees will meed lower membership which would result in less use of the system.
So to see a 1 or 2% reduction in VMT we'd have to expand the system by 10x or 20x
It's congestion mitigation - not congestion elimination. What is the required amount of VMT reduction per dollar for CMAQ money?
we are paying from CMAQ money to replace driving for .01% of road use?
I'd put CaBi against any other program that has received comparable money. Go out and find some thing else that has more success dollar for dollar.
Posted by: washcycle | June 20, 2012 at 12:18 PM
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/06/20/yuppies-on-bikeshares/
Fair point on linking expansion to fees.
CMAQ is about the marginal reduction, not absolute. But I'd hazard the CMAQ money spent on the natural gas facilities achieved a much higher reduction in air quality (althouhg not congestion)
Now, throw all the bike money DC has spent (and it is getting to be a lot) and you might see some ticks. But I don't see actual code red days going down.
And in terms of marginal costs, biking on days like today (100 degreees) are prety painful too.
Posted by: charlie | June 20, 2012 at 01:07 PM
Just to be clear more fees does necessarily mean higher fees.
An expansion of the system both in density and geographical footprint should attract more members thus more fees.
Posted by: Tom | June 20, 2012 at 01:13 PM
Tom, I'm not following your first sentence. We can get more fees without higher fees, right?
I'll agree with your second statement. But I don't necessarily believe that revenue can be coupled with expansion.
Posted by: washcycle | June 20, 2012 at 01:21 PM