Motor Vehicle Fatalities among cyclists up 12.2% in 2015, reach 20 year high

As reported in July based on early estimates, motor vehicle fatalities among cyclists rose sharply in 2015, and now the final numbers are in. 

Pedalcyclist fatalities increased by 89 (a 12.2-percent increase), and are at their highest level since 1995.

That's the highest of any group. 

The total number of such fatalities was 818 (not 820 as estimated) which makes for a bad year count-wise. It's important to note that this is not a measure of all cyclist deaths, just those that include a motor vehicle and which are reported by the police to FARS. This under counts total fatalities by about 30% according to my estimate, meaning the real total is probably closer to 1170. 

At the same time, the estimated number of cyclists injured oddly dropped by 10% from 50,000 to 45,000. 

While fatalities have been increasing somewhat steadily for the last few years, so has the number of people biking and at a faster rate. Meaning that the ratio of fatalities to bike commuters has been dropping since 2005. But unless there is an unprecedented rise in bike commuters this year, it looks like the trend is going up. We'll know when the ACS data comes out.

 

Comments

[john]

Do I read the chart correctly to mean that in a given year, one in one thousand cycle commuters is killed? That seems - high!

[washcycle]

No the title of the chart is really wrong, but I didn't fix it.

It's really the ratio of cyclist fatalities to bike commuters. Bike commuters are used as a proxy to exposure, so the numbers on the left aren't important, it's the relationship of each year's ratio to the other.

There's a lot of flaws to this, but I can't think of a better value for exposure (that is actually tracked).

[jeffb]

@john

I think Washcycle's chart is a graph of all cyclist fatalities versus the percentage of cyclist commuters as a mode share.

Some of the fatalities were to cyclists who weren't commuting such as recreational cyclists.

So its an Apples to Oranges thing.

[john]

Thanks. If the takeaway is (as the posting is captioned) that cyclist fatalities are up then I get that!

I imagine that devising a meaningful statistic for cyclist risk is devilishly hard, given the huge (really, fundamental) differences in how and where people cycle, so it's no surprise that this chart appears to be, beyond that single variable, as confusing as it may be enlightening.

[Kolo Jezdec]

My guess is that cell phone use by motor vehicle operators has risen by at least 12.2% (likely much more) as well.